Piast Gliwice 1-3 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 35%, yet the head-to-head data favours Piast Gliwice — this Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach to face Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Piast Gliwice at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 2.00 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Piast Gliwice, who have won 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against Zaglebie Lubin — Zaglebie Lubin have 1 win, with 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended Piast Gliwice 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Piast Gliwice an edge — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Zaglebie Lubin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 39% | Zaglebie Lubin 49%). Note also that Zaglebie Lubin surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Piast Gliwice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.825 / defence 0.884 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.072 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.159. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 57 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 57.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.08 | Draw 3.04 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 40% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Piast Gliwice 1.05 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.825 / def 0.884 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.072 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Zaglebie Lubin xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 3 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 32% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.07x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 57 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
32%
3.08
33%
3.04
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.15
1.10
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.10 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 17D 21L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.30 PPG from 57 outings (20W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.30 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 9W 11D 8L across their last 28 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 6D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 19W 17D 21L in their last 57 games (1.30 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 20W 14D 23L in their last 57 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.36 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 27 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Zaglebie Lubin have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 39%, Zaglebie Lubin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Piast Gliwice) and 43% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 36% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 54% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 75% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Piast Gliwice 1-3 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.05 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.10 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 33% | Zaglebie Lubin 35%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 39%, Zaglebie Lubin 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.