🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Piast Gliwice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pogon Szczecin beat Piast Gliwice 0-2 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.44 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.99 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 43%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Piast Gliwice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights