Piast Gliwice 0-0 GKS Katowice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 39%, yet in-form GKS Katowice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host GKS Katowice at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Piast Gliwice stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Piast Gliwice at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, GKS Katowice have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, GKS Katowice have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour GKS Katowice — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Piast Gliwice have won 1, GKS Katowice 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2025, ended Piast Gliwice 3–1 GKS Katowice — a Piast Gliwice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
GKS Katowice trading profile (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 51% versus GKS Katowice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 42% | GKS Katowice 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.46 xG and GKS Katowice 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.029 / defence 1.120 | GKS Katowice attack 1.073 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.103. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 65 games and GKS Katowice's last 65.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 28% | GKS Katowice 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.57 | Draw 3.55 | GKS Katowice 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GKS Katowice (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 40% (last 10 home games) | GKS Katowice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 28% | GKS Katowice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Piast Gliwice 1.46 / GKS Katowice 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.029 / def 1.120 | GKS Katowice attack 1.073 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.32
GKS Katowice xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice kicked off at 12:15 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 0 GKS Katowice.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice part of?
Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 32) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 39% chance of winning, GKS Katowice a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (1.03) and GKS Katowice's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GKS Katowice's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 65 games and GKS Katowice's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.55
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.78
1.32
GKS Katowice xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.32 for GKS Katowice, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 65 games, going 22W 19D 24L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, GKS Katowice sit at 1.48 PPG from 65 outings (28W 12D 25L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.31 PPG, GKS Katowice on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 11W 11D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, GKS Katowice have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 32 away games (10W 5D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; GKS Katowice are on 1.49 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
GKS Katowice
Current Season
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs GKS Katowice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
GKS Katowice
Current Season
❓ Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 22W 19D 24L in their last 65 games (1.31 PPG), while GKS Katowice have gone 28W 12D 25L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or GKS Katowice away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.38 PPG; GKS Katowice away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Sep 2026, when Piast Gliwice won Piast Gliwice 3-0 GKS Katowice.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting GKS Katowice specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
0
GKS Katowice
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 2, GKS Katowice have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Piast Gliwice 3-0 GKS Katowice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
GKS Katowice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 44%, GKS Katowice 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Piast Gliwice) and 56% (GKS Katowice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 34% of games; GKS Katowice in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / GKS Katowice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs GKS Katowice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 47% of GKS Katowice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 56% of GKS Katowice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 88% of GKS Katowice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Piast Gliwice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 32, as Piast Gliwice and GKS Katowice drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.46 xG and GKS Katowice 1.32 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. GKS Katowice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against GKS Katowice attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 39% | Draw 28% | GKS Katowice 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 42%, GKS Katowice 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GKS Katowice's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG, GKS Katowice 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. GKS Katowice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.