Nieciecza 1-0 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nieciecza and Wisla Plock meet at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Nieciecza (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nieciecza at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Nieciecza against 1.50 for Wisla Plock. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nieciecza lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nieciecza — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nieciecza 60% versus Wisla Plock 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 53% | Wisla Plock 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.16 xG and Wisla Plock 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.774 / defence 1.343 | Wisla Plock attack 1.043 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.211. Nieciecza's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.415 — this is suppressing Nieciecza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Nieciecza games / 30 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 26% | Draw 25% | Wisla Plock 50%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Wisla Plock 2.00. Wisla Plock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Nieciecza 50% | Wisla Plock 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 26% | Draw 25% | Wisla Plock 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Nieciecza 1.16 / Wisla Plock 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.774 / def 1.343 | Wisla Plock attack 1.043 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Wisla Plock xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Nieciecza 1 - 0 Wisla Plock.
Where is Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock part of?
Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 26% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nieciecza and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Wisla Plock?
Record (1 meetings): Nieciecza 0W | Draws 1 | Wisla Plock 0W.
What form are Nieciecza and Wisla Plock in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nieciecza's attack rating (0.77) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (1.04x) against Nieciecza's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
26%
3.90
25%
4.03
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.85
1.70
Wisla Plock xG
3.90
26%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
21.26
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.70 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nieciecza come into this having played 30 games, going 6W 9D 15L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (14W 3D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nieciecza's home form reads 4W 5D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 0.87 points per game from 15 outings (4W 1D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Attack vs Defence
Nieciecza are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Current Season
Wisla Plock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 6W 9D 15L in their last 30 games (0.90 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 14W 3D 13L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Wisla Plock away?
Nieciecza's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 1.13 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nieciecza have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
1
Draws
2
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Wisla Plock?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Nieciecza 1-3 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Nieciecza, 73% for Wisla Plock — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Nieciecza and 67% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nieciecza have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Nieciecza's games and 73% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nieciecza vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Nieciecza's matches and 67% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Nieciecza and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nieciecza defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza beat Wisla Plock 1-0 at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.16 xG and Wisla Plock 1.70 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Wisla Plock landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.77 / defence 1.34 against Wisla Plock attack 1.04 / defence 1.42, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 26% | Draw 25% | Wisla Plock 50%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Nieciecza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 53%, Wisla Plock 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Nieciecza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.