Wisla Plock 0-3 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Warta Poznań travel to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Wisla Plock have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Warta Poznań's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.50 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Wisla Plock, 0 for Warta Poznań and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 55% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 52% | Warta Poznań 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.04 xG and Warta Poznań 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.004 / defence 1.104 | Warta Poznań attack 0.775 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 1.251. Data: 31 Wisla Plock games / 31 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 36%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Warta Poznań 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Warta Poznań are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Warta Poznań 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Plock 1.04 / Warta Poznań 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.004 / def 1.104 | Warta Poznań attack 0.775 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.061 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Warta Poznań xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Wisla Plock 0 - 3 Warta Poznań.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań part of?
Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 34% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 1.00x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
34%
2.94
30%
3.29
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.11
1.07
Warta Poznań xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.07 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 31 games, going 14W 3D 14L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.45 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Plock's home form reads 10W 2D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.97 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 14W 3D 14L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Warta Poznań away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.13 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2022, when Wisla Plock won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań?
From 4 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2023, when Wisla Plock 1-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Plock 40% BTTS, Warta Poznań 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Wisla Plock and 27% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 33%; Warta Poznań in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 20% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 27% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Warta Poznań run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Wisla Plock 0-3 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.04 xG and Warta Poznań 1.07 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Warta Poznań outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Warta Poznań attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 36%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 52%, Warta Poznań 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.45 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.