Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Cracovia Krakow versus Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wisla Krakow (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Cracovia Krakow's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Wisla Krakow's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Wisla Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 50% versus Wisla Krakow 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 43% | Wisla Krakow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.44 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.932 / defence 1.080 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.726 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.195. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Cracovia Krakow games / 30 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 49% | Draw 27% | Wisla Krakow 24%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Wisla Krakow 4.17. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Wisla Krakow 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 1 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 49% | Draw 27% | Wisla Krakow 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.44 / Wisla Krakow 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.932 / def 1.080 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.726 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Wisla Krakow xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 May 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 0 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 49% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (0.93) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (0.73x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.71
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.38
0.94
Wisla Krakow xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.94 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 11W 8D 11L from 30 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 15L across 30 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cracovia Krakow by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Krakow heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 6W 4D 5L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.17 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Wisla Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.47 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cracovia Krakow
1
Draws
1
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Wisla Krakow have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2022, when Cracovia Krakow 0-0 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 53%, Wisla Krakow 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cracovia Krakow) and 53% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wisla Krakow in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 67% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 53% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cracovia Krakow's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Wisla Krakow finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.44 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.94 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Wisla Krakow landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.73 / defence 1.46, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 49% | Draw 27% | Wisla Krakow 24%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 43%, Wisla Krakow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.