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Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 23, as Nieciecza and Radomiak Radom drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.16 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.44 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 22/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 29% | Draw 29% | Radomiak Radom 42%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 46%, Radomiak Radom 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nieciecza's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.95 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights