Motor Lublin 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zaglebie Lubin travel to Motor Lublin Arena to take on Motor Lublin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Motor Lublin stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Motor Lublin's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zaglebie Lubin are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Motor Lublin's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Motor Lublin have won 2, Zaglebie Lubin 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Motor Lublin 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Motor Lublin trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 59% versus Zaglebie Lubin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 54% | Zaglebie Lubin 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.20 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.971 / defence 0.989 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.219 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.154. Zaglebie Lubin have an above-average attack rating of 1.219, which lifts their away xG to 1.39. Data: built from Motor Lublin's last 59 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 59.
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 31% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 3.21 | Draw 3.46 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Motor Lublin's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Motor Lublin 70% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 31% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Motor Lublin 1.20 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.971 / def 0.989 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.219 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Zaglebie Lubin xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 20 March 2026 at Motor Lublin Arena.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Motor Lublin 1 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 31% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Motor Lublin's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Motor Lublin's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Motor Lublin's last 59 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
31%
3.21
29%
3.46
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.59
1.39
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.39 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Motor Lublin have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 22W 17D 20L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Zaglebie Lubin's form line: 21W 14D 24L from 59 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Motor Lublin on 1.41 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Motor Lublin have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 29 home games (11W 11D 7L).
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 9W 6D 14L from their last 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.24 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Motor Lublin (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Motor Lublin
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 22W 17D 20L in their last 59 games (1.41 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.52 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Motor Lublin's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Motor Lublin
2
Draws
0
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Motor Lublin have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Motor Lublin 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin?
Motor Lublin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 62%, Zaglebie Lubin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Motor Lublin) and 45% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Motor Lublin's games and 55% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 45% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 76% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.20 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.39 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.22 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 31% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Motor Lublin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 54%, Zaglebie Lubin 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.41 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.