Legia Warszawa 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 39%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Legia Warszawa welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Warta Poznań 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Warta Poznań winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Warta Poznań trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 47% versus Warta Poznań 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 51% | Warta Poznań 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 0.93 xG and Warta Poznań 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.201 / defence 0.917 | Warta Poznań attack 1.016 / defence 0.567. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.181. Warta Poznań's defence strength of 0.567 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Legia Warszawa games / 45 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 30% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 39%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Warta Poznań 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Warta Poznań at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Warta Poznań 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 30% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Legia Warszawa 0.93 / Warta Poznań 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.201 / def 0.917 | Warta Poznań attack 1.016 / def 0.567 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Warta Poznań xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 30% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań?
Record (2 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (0.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
30%
3.29
30%
3.29
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.03
1.10
Warta Poznań xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.4 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.10 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 19W 7D 19L from 45 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 19L across 45 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.42 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 14W 1D 7L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 11W 3D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.00 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 19W 7D 19L in their last 45 games (1.42 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Warta Poznań away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.95 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2024, when Warta Poznań 0-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Legia Warszawa 41% BTTS, Warta Poznań 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Legia Warszawa) and 23% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 50%; Warta Poznań in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 14% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 23% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 0.93 xG and Warta Poznań 1.10 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against Warta Poznań attack 1.02 / defence 0.57, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 30% | Draw 30% | Warta Poznań 39%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 51%, Warta Poznań 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.42 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.