Lech Poznan 0-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lech Poznan at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Legia Warszawa make the trip to Stadion Poznań to face Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lech Poznan have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's home record at Stadion Poznań: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Lech Poznan, 2.00 for Legia Warszawa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lech Poznan lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 44% versus Legia Warszawa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 49% | Legia Warszawa 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.44 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 0.921 / defence 0.915 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.870 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.202. Data: 43 Lech Poznan games / 44 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 48% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 4.00. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lech Poznan 40% | Legia Warszawa 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Poznań • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 48% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Lech Poznan 1.44 / Legia Warszawa 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 0.921 / def 0.915 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.870 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Legia Warszawa xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadion Poznań.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Lech Poznan 0 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Poznań.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 48% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
Record (2 meetings): Lech Poznan 1W | Draws 1 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.87x) against Lech Poznan's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.74
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.39
0.96
Legia Warszawa xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.96 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 26W 10D 7L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 18W 6D 19L from 43 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Legia Warszawa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 2.18 PPG from 22 outings (15W 3D 4L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 5D 12L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.37 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 26W 10D 7L in their last 43 games (2.05 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 18W 6D 19L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.18 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 4-0 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lech Poznan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lech Poznan
5
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 4, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 32%, Legia Warszawa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Lech Poznan) and 50% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 54% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 50% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lech Poznan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Poznań, Regular Season - 11, as Lech Poznan and Legia Warszawa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.44 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.96 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 48% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 25%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 49%, Legia Warszawa 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.