Piast Gliwice 1-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Piast Gliwice welcome Widzew Łódź to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Monday 10 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Piast Gliwice are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Widzew Łódź — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Widzew Łódź trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Piast Gliwice 27% | Widzew Łódź 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 27% | Widzew Łódź 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.953 / defence 0.895 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.933 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.151. Data: 45 Piast Gliwice games / 11 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 36% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Widzew Łódź 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Widzew Łódź (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 50% | Widzew Łódź 17% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 36% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.03 / Widzew Łódź 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.953 / def 0.895 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.933 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Widzew Łódź xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 36% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
36%
2.75
31%
3.24
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
1.99
0.96
Widzew Łódź xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.96 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 2D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.55 PPG overall record — Widzew Łódź travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.27 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Piast Gliwice have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Widzew Łódź's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.40 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Widzew Łódź have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
6
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Widzew Łódź tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS, Widzew Łódź 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Piast Gliwice and 20% for Widzew Łódź.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 80%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 40% of games; Widzew Łódź in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 0% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 20% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Widzew Łódź defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Piast Gliwice 1-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.96 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Widzew Łódź outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 36% | Draw 31% | Widzew Łódź 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 27%, Widzew Łódź 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Widzew Łódź arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.