Jagiellonia 1-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Jagiellonia welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Jagiellonia) versus 1.70 (Wisla Plock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Wisla Plock in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 0, Wisla Plock 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Wisla Plock winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 72% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Wisla Plock 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Wisla Plock 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.07 xG and Wisla Plock 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.312 / defence 0.946 | Wisla Plock attack 1.137 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.192. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Jagiellonia games / 45 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 23%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Wisla Plock 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Jagiellonia 2.07 / Wisla Plock 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.312 / def 0.946 | Wisla Plock attack 1.137 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Wisla Plock xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock part of?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 56% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
Record (2 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 2W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.31) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
56%
1.80
21%
4.74
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.36
1.28
Wisla Plock xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
13%
7.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
3%
34.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.28 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 17D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.51 PPG from 45 outings (21W 5D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.24 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 9W 8D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (6W 2D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.56 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 13W 17D 15L in their last 45 games (1.24 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 21W 5D 19L in their last 45 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Wisla Plock away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.52 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Wisla Plock won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
3
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 65%, Wisla Plock at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Jagiellonia and 70% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Jagiellonia's games and 65% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Jagiellonia's matches and 70% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia and Wisla Plock finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.07 xG and Wisla Plock 1.28 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.31 / defence 0.95 against Wisla Plock attack 1.14 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 56% | Draw 21% | Wisla Plock 23%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Wisla Plock 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.24 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.