Stal Mielec 3-3 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion MOSiR plays host to Stal Mielec versus Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stal Mielec have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at Stadion MOSiR this term (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 3W 3D 1L from 7 away outings — 1.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lechia Gdansk are 0.50 PPG clear of Stal Mielec in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Stal Mielec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 50% versus Lechia Gdansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 43% | Lechia Gdansk 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.02 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.933 / defence 1.122 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.072 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.222. Data: 14 Stal Mielec games / 14 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 25% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 47%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Lechia Gdansk 2.13. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stal Mielec 29% | Lechia Gdansk 43% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 25% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Stal Mielec 1.02 / Lechia Gdansk 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.933 / def 1.122 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.072 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Lechia Gdansk xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadion MOSiR.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk?
Stal Mielec 3 - 3 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 25% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.93x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (1.07x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
25%
3.93
28%
3.57
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.49
1.47
Lechia Gdansk xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
6%
17.11
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.47 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 5W 5D 4L from 14 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 1L across 14 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lechia Gdansk by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stal Mielec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lechia Gdansk's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.79 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 8W 5D 1L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.86 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
3
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk?
From 6 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 29%, Lechia Gdansk 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Stal Mielec) and 29% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 43%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 43% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 29% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion MOSiR, Regular Season - 15, as Stal Mielec and Lechia Gdansk drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.02 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.47 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Stal Mielec beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 25% | Draw 28% | Lechia Gdansk 47%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 43%, Lechia Gdansk 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.