Widzew Łódź 1-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Widzew Łódź at 1.60 PPG versus Slask Wroclaw's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Widzew Łódź, 0 for Slask Wroclaw and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 40% versus Slask Wroclaw 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Slask Wroclaw 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.17 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.087 / defence 1.222 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.955 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.149. Data: 20 Widzew Łódź games / 54 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 39%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slask Wroclaw are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 60% | Slask Wroclaw 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.17 / Slask Wroclaw 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.087 / def 1.222 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.955 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Slask Wroclaw xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 30% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
30%
3.29
31%
3.22
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.51
1.34
Slask Wroclaw xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
8%
12.55
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.34 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 5D 6L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.60 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 4W 3D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.67 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when Slask Wroclaw won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
2
Draws
3
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
From 6 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 3-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 56%, Slask Wroclaw 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Widzew Łódź) and 22% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 33%; Slask Wroclaw in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 33% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 22% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Widzew Łódź defy the odds to beat Slask Wroclaw 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Slask Wroclaw 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.17 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.34 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 1.09 / defence 1.22 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 30% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 39%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Widzew Łódź win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Slask Wroclaw 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.60 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.