Lechia Gdansk 4-2 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Korona Kielce travel to Polsat Plus Arena to take on Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 20:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lechia Gdansk stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lechia Gdansk's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Korona Kielce have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Korona Kielce have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Korona Kielce 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Lechia Gdansk 0–3 Korona Kielce — a Korona Kielce win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Korona Kielce trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 68% and Korona Kielce 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 63% | Korona Kielce 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.70 xG and Korona Kielce 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.268 / defence 1.084 | Korona Kielce attack 1.022 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.093. Lechia Gdansk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.268 — their 1.70 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 60 games and Korona Kielce's last 60.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 26%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.11 | Draw 3.74 | Korona Kielce 3.87. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lechia Gdansk's last 10 home games and Korona Kielce's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 70% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 27 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 20:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.70 / Korona Kielce 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.268 / def 1.084 | Korona Kielce attack 1.022 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Korona Kielce xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 20:15 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Polsat Plus Arena.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Lechia Gdansk 4 - 2 Korona Kielce.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 27) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 47% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.27) and Korona Kielce's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 60 games and Korona Kielce's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.74
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.91
1.21
Korona Kielce xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
5%
21.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.21 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 13D 26L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.35 PPG from 60 outings (21W 18D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.27 PPG, Korona Kielce on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 14W 5D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 13D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.17 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Korona Kielce away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.57 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 6 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Sep 2025, when Korona Kielce won Korona Kielce 3-0 Lechia Gdansk.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
3
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2026: Lechia Gdansk 4-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 60%, Korona Kielce 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lechia Gdansk) and 33% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 60% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 33% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 67% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Korona Kielce 4-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.70 xG and Korona Kielce 1.21 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.27 / defence 1.08 against Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 26%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 63%, Korona Kielce 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.27 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.