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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Korona Kielce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lechia Gdansk beat Korona Kielce 4-2 at Polsat Plus Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.70 xG and Korona Kielce 1.21 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.27 / defence 1.08 against Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 26%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 63%, Korona Kielce 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Korona Kielce's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.27 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights