Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Wisla Plock take on Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice meet at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.70 for Piast Gliwice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Wisla Plock, 4 for Piast Gliwice and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 46% versus Piast Gliwice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 39% | Piast Gliwice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.00 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.765 / defence 0.898 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.950 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.297. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Wisla Plock games / 45 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 37% | Piast Gliwice 34%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Piast Gliwice 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 10% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 29% | Draw 37% | Piast Gliwice 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Wisla Plock 1.00 / Piast Gliwice 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.765 / def 0.898 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.950 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Piast Gliwice xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 29% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice?
Record (6 meetings): Wisla Plock 2W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 4W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.95x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.46
37%
2.72
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.11
1.11
Piast Gliwice xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.11 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wisla Plock come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 12D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (16W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Wisla Plock against 1.32 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Wisla Plock's home form reads 10W 4D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.39 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.62 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 24%, Piast Gliwice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Wisla Plock) and 57% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 62% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 57% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.