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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jagiellonia and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.34 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.16 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.43 / defence 1.01 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 63% | Draw 20% | Radomiak Radom 17%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Radomiak Radom 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jagiellonia's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Radomiak Radom's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights