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Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Raków Częstochowa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gornik Zabrze beat Raków Częstochowa 3-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.20 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 40% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights