Gornik Zabrze 3-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 40%, yet in-form Raków Częstochowa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gornik Zabrze stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Raków Częstochowa's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Raków Częstochowa — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 60% of Raków Częstochowa's (from Gornik Zabrze's last 10 home games and Raków Częstochowa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Raków Częstochowa 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2025, ended Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Raków Częstochowa — a Gornik Zabrze win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Raków Częstochowa 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Raków Częstochowa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.979 / defence 0.957 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.198 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.165. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 58 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 58.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.53 | Draw 3.61 | Raków Częstochowa 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Raków Częstochowa (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Gornik Zabrze's last 10 home games and Raków Częstochowa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 60% (last 10 home games) | Raków Częstochowa 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 40% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.49 / Raków Częstochowa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.979 / def 0.957 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.198 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze 3 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 40% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.98x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 58 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.61
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.62
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.34 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 13D 22L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.83 PPG from 58 outings (31W 13D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Gornik Zabrze — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 15W 5D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.90 points per game from their last 29 away games (16W 7D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.45 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Raków Częstochowa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 23W 13D 22L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 31W 13D 14L in their last 58 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.72 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Gornik Zabrze have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 6, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 48%, Raków Częstochowa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Gornik Zabrze) and 38% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 48%; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Raków Częstochowa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 41% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 38% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Raków Częstochowa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 62% of Raków Częstochowa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Raków Częstochowa 3-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.20 / defence 1.10, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 40% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 33%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Raków Częstochowa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Gornik Zabrze winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.