Over 1.5 Goals Predictions
Fixtures ranked by highest predicted over 1.5 probability — Monday 30 September 2024
Over 1.5 goals is the safest goals market — you only need two goals in the match. Our prediction model calculates this as the probability of at least 2 total goals (i.e. anything other than a 0–0 or 1–0/0–1 scoreline). Only fixtures with 70%+ probability are shown, giving you the most reliable selections for accumulators.
16 matches cleared our threshold on Monday 30 September 2024. Villarreal vs Las Palmas led the list at 89% in the La Liga. The shortlist runs from 89% down to 71%, so the tail is materially weaker than the top.
The shortlist spans ten different competitions, so there is no single league driving the day.
Of the 16 fixtures on this list that have since finished, 15 landed the over 1.5 goals market — 94%. This is a single day's sample and swings heavily; the rolling record across all fixtures is on the model accuracy page.
Model output for information only — not betting advice. See the model's accuracy record.
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
La Liga · Spain
Primera División · Chile
Ligue 2 · France
Veikkausliiga · Finland
Super League 1 · Greece
Serie A · Italy
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Süper Lig · Turkey
Serie B · Italy
Superettan · Sweden
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Premier League · England
Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Premier League · Ukraine
Serie B · Italy
Showing top 16 fixtures by over 1.5 goals probability (≥ 70%). Predictions are generated by our prediction model and updated daily. For informational purposes only.
Related markets
Over 1.5 Goals — common questions
What does the Over 1.5 Goals market mean?
Over 1.5 Goals settles on whether a match finishes with at least 2 total goals. It is one of the most commonly offered football markets and is priced by every major bookmaker.
How does Fixture360 calculate over 1.5 goals probability?
Our Poisson model estimates each team's expected goals from their attack and defence strengths, then builds a probability for every possible scoreline. The over 1.5 probability shown here is the probability of at least 2 total goals, summed across every scoreline in the model's matrix. No bookmaker odds are used as an input — the model is independent of the market.
How many fixtures qualified for Over 1.5 Goals on Monday 30 September 2024?
16 fixtures met the criteria, led by Villarreal vs Las Palmas at 89% over 1.5 probability.
Which fixtures appear on this page?
Fixtures with a 70% or higher over 1.5 probability, ranked strongest first. The page defaults to today; the date strip moves to other days, and only fixtures with enough underlying result history to generate a model snapshot are eligible.
How accurate are these over 1.5 goals predictions?
Every settled prediction is scored and published on our model accuracy page, broken down by market and league. Treat any single day as a small sample — the model is built to be judged over hundreds of fixtures, not one card.
Are these predictions betting tips?
No. These are model outputs published for information, with no stake or return implied. Gambling carries real financial risk — please read our responsible gambling guidance.