Sudtirol 1-3 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 30 September 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Marco Druso. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Palermo have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Sudtirol, 1.40 for Palermo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Sudtirol 1W, Palermo 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Palermo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 54% versus Palermo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Palermo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.31 xG and Palermo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.151 / defence 1.171 | Palermo attack 1.057 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.086. Data: 44 Sudtirol games / 44 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 31% | Palermo 35%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Palermo 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 40% | Palermo 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 31% | Palermo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Sudtirol 1.31 / Palermo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.151 / def 1.171 | Palermo attack 1.057 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Palermo (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Palermo xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Palermo kick off?
Sudtirol vs Palermo kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Sudtirol 1 - 3 Palermo.
Where is Sudtirol vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Palermo part of?
Sudtirol vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 34% chance of winning, Palermo a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sudtirol and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Palermo?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 1 | Palermo 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Palermo in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Palermo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.06x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
34%
2.95
31%
3.26
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.66
1.34
Palermo xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.34 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 15W 11D 18L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 16W 12D 16L from 44 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.36 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 8W 6D 8L from 22 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Palermo in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Palermo have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Palermo away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.45 PPG; Palermo away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Palermo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 46%, Palermo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 41% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 54% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 41% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Palermo tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Palermo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Sudtirol 1-3 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.31 xG and Palermo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.15 / defence 1.17 against Palermo attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 34% | Draw 31% | Palermo 35%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 50%, Palermo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.27 PPG, Palermo 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.