Guingamp 3-1 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Caen meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 30 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Caen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Caen have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Caen have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Guingamp 3W, Caen 3W, 0D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Caen half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 41% versus Caen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Caen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 2.04 xG and Caen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.282 / defence 1.245 | Caen attack 0.946 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.124. Guingamp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Guingamp games / 44 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 54% | Draw 21% | Caen 25%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Caen 4.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 54% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Caen 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 54% | Draw 21% | Caen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Guingamp 2.04 / Caen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.282 / def 1.245 | Caen attack 0.946 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Caen xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Caen kick off?
Guingamp vs Caen kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Caen?
Guingamp 3 - 1 Caen.
Where is Guingamp vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Caen part of?
Guingamp vs Caen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 54% chance of winning, Caen a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Guingamp and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Caen?
Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 0 | Caen 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Caen in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Caen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Caen's attack (0.95x) against Guingamp's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
54%
1.85
21%
4.68
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.36
1.32
Caen xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
3%
31.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.32 for Caen, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp's recent record stands at 16W 13D 15L from 44 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Caen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 17L across 44 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Caen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Guingamp against 1.48 for Caen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 6W 8D 7L from 21 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Caen's away record stands at 6W 4D 11L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Caen's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.27 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Caen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Caen in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Caen have gone 19W 8D 17L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Caen away?
Guingamp's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.24 PPG; Caen away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Caen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Guingamp have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Caen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Guingamp
0
Draws
3
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, Caen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Caen 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Caen?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 43%, Caen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Guingamp and 67% for Caen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guingamp's recent matches and 67% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Guingamp's matches and 67% of Caen's.
Do Guingamp and Caen tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Caen in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Caen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Caen 3-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 2.04 xG and Caen 1.32 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.28 / defence 1.25 against Caen attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 54% | Draw 21% | Caen 25%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Caen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.39 PPG, Caen 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Caen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.