Lamia 1-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lamia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Panserraikos at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 30 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 1W 2D 7L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panserraikos have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Panserraikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panserraikos's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamia 0.60 PPG, Panserraikos 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lamia have won 0, Panserraikos 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 0–2 with Panserraikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Panserraikos in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 63% versus Panserraikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 68% | Panserraikos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.44 xG and Panserraikos 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.766 / defence 1.098 | Panserraikos attack 0.966 / defence 1.523. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.195. Lamia's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.523 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Lamia games / 31 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 38% | Draw 33% | Panserraikos 30%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Panserraikos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 50% | Panserraikos 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 38% | Draw 33% | Panserraikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Lamia 1.44 / Panserraikos 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.766 / def 1.098 | Panserraikos attack 0.966 / def 1.523 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Lamia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Panserraikos xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panserraikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Lamia 1 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panserraikos part of?
Lamia vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 38% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lamia and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panserraikos?
Record (2 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | Panserraikos 2W.
What form are Lamia and Panserraikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.77x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
38%
2.67
33%
3.03
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.71
1.27
Panserraikos xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Lamia and 1.27 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 9D 20L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.03 PPG from 38 outings (9W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panserraikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.95 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamia's home form reads 5W 4D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.53 points per game from 19 outings (2W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.11 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Panserraikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panserraikos away?
Lamia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.00 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lamia's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
4
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Panserraikos have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Lamia 2-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panserraikos?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 58%, Panserraikos 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Lamia) and 47% (Panserraikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 32% of games; Panserraikos in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Lamia's recent matches and 37% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Lamia's matches and 47% of Panserraikos's.
Do Lamia and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Lamia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Lamia 1-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.44 xG and Panserraikos 1.27 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Panserraikos attack 0.97 / defence 1.52, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 38% | Draw 33% | Panserraikos 30%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Panserraikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 68%, Panserraikos 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.95 PPG, Panserraikos 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.