Viking 4-1 Start – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Start encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Start travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2020, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Start have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Start have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Viking are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Viking, 0 for Start and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Viking in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Start in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 60% versus Start 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 72% | Start 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.11 xG and Start 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.166 / defence 1.204 | Start attack 0.662 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.372. Start bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Viking games / 25 Start games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 60% | Draw 21% | Start 19%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Start 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Viking (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 60% | Start 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Start | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2020, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 60% | Draw 21% | Start 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Viking 2.11 / Start 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.166 / def 1.204 | Start attack 0.662 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Viking (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Start xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Start kick off?
Viking vs Start kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 November 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Start?
Viking 4 - 1 Start.
Where is Viking vs Start being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Start part of?
Viking vs Start is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Start?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 60% chance of winning, Start a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Start?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Viking and Start will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Start have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Start?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 0W | Draws 1 | Start 0W.
What form are Viking and Start in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Start (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Viking's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Start's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Start's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
60%
1.65
21%
4.81
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Viking xG
Total xG
3.21
1.09
Start xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
2%
44.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Start?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Viking and Start expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Viking and 1.09 for Start, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Start?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Viking have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 10W 6D 9L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Start's form line: 6W 7D 12L from 25 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Start.
Venue Form
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, Start have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Start's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Viking are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Start are on 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Start
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Start in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 10W 6D 9L in their last 25 games (1.44 PPG), while Start have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Start away?
Viking's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.50 PPG; Start away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2020, when Viking won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Start specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Viking
1
Draws
0
Start
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Start?
From 4 meetings on record, Viking have won 3, Start have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Start last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Start 0-3 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Start?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Start are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Viking 67%, Start 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Viking and 50% for Start. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Start away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Start?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 50% of Start's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Start usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Viking's matches and 50% of Start's.
Do Viking and Start tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Start in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Viking run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Start.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Start 4-1 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.11 xG and Start 1.09 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.17 / defence 1.20 against Start attack 0.66 / defence 1.33, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 60% | Draw 21% | Start 19%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 72%, Start 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Start's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Start (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.