Bodo/Glimt 5-1 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion.
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Bodo/Glimt. A 0.90 PPG lead over Rosenborg (2.70 vs 1.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 68%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 72% and Rosenborg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 92% | Rosenborg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.47 xG and Rosenborg 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.718 / defence 0.810 | Rosenborg attack 0.771 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.369. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.718 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Bodo/Glimt games / 25 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 16% | Rosenborg 11%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Rosenborg 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Rosenborg 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 16% | Rosenborg 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 53% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.47 / Rosenborg 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.718 / def 0.810 | Rosenborg attack 0.771 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Rosenborg xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 November 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt 5 - 1 Rosenborg.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 73% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.72) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.77x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
73%
1.38
16%
6.06
11%
9.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.33
0.85
Rosenborg xG
1.38
73%
Home win
6.06
16%
Draw
9.23
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
8%
11.86
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
1%
109.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.85 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 22W 2D 1L from 25 games, a 2.72 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 6L across 25 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 12W 0D 0L from 12 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 5W 3D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.40 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.80 scored and 1.12 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 22W 2D 1L in their last 25 games (2.72 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 13W 6D 6L in their last 25 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Rosenborg away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
5
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, Rosenborg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 58%, Rosenborg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Bodo/Glimt and 58% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Rosenborg in 33%; Rosenborg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 42% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 58% of Rosenborg's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Rosenborg 5-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.47 xG and Rosenborg 0.85 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.72 / defence 0.81 against Rosenborg attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 16% | Rosenborg 11%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 92%, Rosenborg 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.72 PPG against 1.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.83 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.