Mjondalen 0-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 44%, yet in-form Stabaek provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjondalen vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 26 as Mjondalen welcome Stabaek to Consto Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Mjondalen have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Consto Arena, Mjondalen have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stabaek — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Stabaek's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mjondalen's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mjondalen, 0 for Stabaek and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mjondalen in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjondalen 40% versus Stabaek 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjondalen 44% | Stabaek 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjondalen 1.39 xG and Stabaek 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjondalen attack 0.793 / defence 1.109 | Stabaek attack 0.705 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.369. Mjondalen's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Mjondalen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Mjondalen games / 25 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjondalen 44% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 29%. Fair-value odds: Mjondalen 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Stabaek 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjondalen as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Stabaek (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjondalen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjondalen 30% | Stabaek 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjondalen vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Consto Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjondalen 44% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjondalen 1.39 / Stabaek 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Mjondalen attack 0.793 / def 1.109 | Stabaek attack 0.705 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Mjondalen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Stabaek xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjondalen vs Stabaek kick off?
Mjondalen vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 November 2020 at Consto Arena.
What was the final score in Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Mjondalen 0 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Mjondalen vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Consto Arena.
What competition is Mjondalen vs Stabaek part of?
Mjondalen vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Mjondalen a 44% chance of winning, Stabaek a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjondalen and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Mjondalen vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
Record (1 meetings): Mjondalen 0W | Draws 1 | Stabaek 0W.
What form are Mjondalen and Stabaek in?
Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Stabaek (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mjondalen's attack at 0.79x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Mjondalen's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.67
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Mjondalen xG
Total xG
2.46
1.07
Stabaek xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mjondalen and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Mjondalen and 1.07 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjondalen vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjondalen come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 2D 17L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Mjondalen's home form reads 4W 0D 8L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 1.00 points per game from 12 outings (2W 6D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjondalen are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.24 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjondalen
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjondalen and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Mjondalen have gone 6W 2D 17L in their last 25 games (0.80 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 7W 10D 8L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjondalen at home or Stabaek away?
Mjondalen's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjondalen at home: 1.00 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Mjondalen's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mjondalen
2
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjondalen have won 0, Stabaek have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjondalen and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2021, when Stabaek 1-1 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between Mjondalen and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjondalen 33%, Stabaek 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Mjondalen) and 67% (Stabaek).
On the defensive side: Mjondalen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjondalen have failed to score in 33% of games; Stabaek in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjondalen home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjondalen play Stabaek?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Mjondalen's recent matches and 67% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjondalen vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Mjondalen's recent games and 67% of Stabaek's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjondalen and Stabaek tend to score early?
Mjondalen have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stabaek defy the odds to beat Mjondalen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Mjondalen 0-1 at Consto Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjondalen 1.39 xG and Stabaek 1.07 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjondalen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjondalen attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Stabaek attack 0.70 / defence 1.26, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjondalen 44% | Draw 27% | Stabaek 29%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Stabaek win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjondalen 44%, Stabaek 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjondalen's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stabaek arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Stabaek (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.