Valerenga 3-1 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 38%, yet in-form Valerenga provide a compelling counter-argument — this Valerenga vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valerenga and Sandefjord meet at Intility Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Valerenga (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Valerenga at Intility Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandefjord have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Valerenga. A 0.80 PPG lead over Sandefjord (2.00 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Valerenga, 0 for Sandefjord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2020, ended 3–0 with Valerenga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Valerenga half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sandefjord half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 63% versus Sandefjord 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 53% | Sandefjord 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.35 xG and Sandefjord 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.012 / defence 0.980 | Sandefjord attack 1.133 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.298. Data: 35 Valerenga games / 33 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 34% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 38%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Sandefjord 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valerenga (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Sandefjord 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 34% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Valerenga 1.35 / Sandefjord 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.012 / def 0.980 | Sandefjord attack 1.133 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Sandefjord xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Sandefjord kick off?
Valerenga vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Sandefjord?
Valerenga 3 - 1 Sandefjord.
Where is Valerenga vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Sandefjord part of?
Valerenga vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 34% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Valerenga and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sandefjord?
Record (1 meetings): Valerenga 1W | Draws 0 | Sandefjord 0W.
What form are Valerenga and Sandefjord in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Sandefjord (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valerenga's attack rating (1.01) and Sandefjord's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (1.13x) against Valerenga's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 35/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
34%
2.98
29%
3.46
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.79
1.44
Sandefjord xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.44 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Valerenga have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 15W 10D 5L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Sandefjord's form line: 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Valerenga are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandefjord.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valerenga have posted 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (10W 5D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 6W 1D 8L from 15 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Sandefjord away?
Valerenga's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.33 PPG; Sandefjord away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Sandefjord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sandefjord in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 4-0 on 18 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Valerenga
0
Draws
3
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 7, Sandefjord have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Valerenga 1-0 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Sandefjord?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 67%, Sandefjord 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Valerenga) and 53% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sandefjord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valerenga's games and 53% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 53% of Sandefjord's.
Do Valerenga and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.35 xG and Sandefjord 1.44 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Sandefjord attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 34% | Draw 29% | Sandefjord 38%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Valerenga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Sandefjord 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandefjord's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.