Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 5 as Valerenga welcome Bodo/Glimt to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Valerenga's 2.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Valerenga, 1 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2020, ended 0–2 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 63% and Bodo/Glimt 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Valerenga 53% | Bodo/Glimt 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.79 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.066 / defence 0.888 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.200 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Valerenga games / 30 Bodo/Glimt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Valerenga 45% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 30%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Bodo/Glimt 3.33. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valerenga at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Bodo/Glimt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 45% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Valerenga 1.79 / Bodo/Glimt 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.066 / def 0.888 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.200 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Bodo/Glimt xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Intility Arena.
Where is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 45% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (2 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.97
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.23
1.44
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
5%
20.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.44 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 15W 10D 5L from 30 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-W in the last five.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 26W 3D 1L across 30 games — 2.70 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 10W 5D 0L from 15 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.83 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 11W 3D 1L across 15 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 3.43 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 15W 10D 5L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 (2.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.33 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valerenga
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 67%, Bodo/Glimt at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Valerenga and 93% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 73% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valerenga keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valerenga's games and 80% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Valerenga's matches and 93% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valerenga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.79 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.44 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valerenga fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.20 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 45% | Draw 25% | Bodo/Glimt 30%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 53%, Bodo/Glimt 90%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.