Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 27 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Haugesund 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Haugesund 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.88 xG and Haugesund 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.425 / defence 0.899 | Haugesund attack 0.873 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.399. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 34 Bodo/Glimt games / 32 Haugesund games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 20%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Haugesund 5.00. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Haugesund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 27 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.88 / Haugesund 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.425 / def 0.899 | Haugesund attack 0.873 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Haugesund xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 27 May 2021 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 54% chance of winning, Haugesund a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.43) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
54%
1.87
27%
3.76
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.98
1.10
Haugesund xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
3%
32.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.10 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 26W 3D 1L from 30 games, a 2.70 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 13L across 30 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 15W 0D 0L from 15 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 26W 3D 1L in their last 30 games (2.70 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Haugesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; Haugesund away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Haugesund in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Haugesund have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 87% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 60%, Haugesund 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 87% for Bodo/Glimt and 60% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Haugesund in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 60% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 87% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 60% of Haugesund's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 2-0 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.88 xG and Haugesund 1.10 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.43 / defence 0.90 against Haugesund attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 34/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 54% | Draw 27% | Haugesund 20%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 90%, Haugesund 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.70 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.