Lillestrom 1-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees ODD Ballklubb travel to Åråsen Stadion to take on Lillestrom. The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 May 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ODD Ballklubb away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.31 xG and ODD Ballklubb 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.759 / defence 1.370 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.085 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.399. Lillestrom's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Lillestrom games / 32 ODD Ballklubb games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 22% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 53%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 1.89. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 27 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 22% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Lillestrom 1.31 / ODD Ballklubb 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.759 / def 1.370 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.085 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
2.08
ODD Ballklubb xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 27 May 2021 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom 1 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 22% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. ODD Ballklubb away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.76x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Lillestrom's defence, projects 2.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
22%
4.55
25%
4.06
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.39
2.08
ODD Ballklubb xG
4.55
22%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
13%
8.00
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
3%
36.38
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lillestrom and 2.08 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
ODD Ballklubb
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Lillestrom won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lillestrom's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lillestrom
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Lillestrom 3-0 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and ODD Ballklubb?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Lillestrom defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat ODD Ballklubb 1-0 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.31 xG and ODD Ballklubb 2.08 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. ODD Ballklubb landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.76 / defence 1.37 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 22% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 53%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lillestrom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.