Tromso 4-0 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tromso (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tromso face Fredrikstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Romssa Arena plays host to Tromso versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tromso's home record at Romssa Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Romssa Arena.
Fredrikstad (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Tromso's favour (2.10 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 43% versus Fredrikstad 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 53% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.66 xG and Fredrikstad 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.001 / defence 0.912 | Fredrikstad attack 0.948 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.804 / away 1.299. Data: 30 Tromso games / 30 Fredrikstad games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tromso 50% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 26%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Fredrikstad 3.85. Tromso hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Tromso 40% | Fredrikstad 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 50% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Tromso 1.66 / Fredrikstad 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.001 / def 0.912 | Fredrikstad attack 0.948 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.804 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Tromso (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Fredrikstad xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Tromso 4 - 0 Fredrikstad.
Where is Tromso vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Fredrikstad part of?
Tromso vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 50% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tromso and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
Record (4 meetings): Tromso 2W | Draws 2 | Fredrikstad 0W.
What form are Tromso and Fredrikstad in?
Tromso (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.00x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.95x) against Tromso's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.11
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.79
1.12
Fredrikstad xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
20.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Tromso and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Tromso and 1.12 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Tromso have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 27W 9D 24L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Fredrikstad's form line: 25W 18D 17L from 60 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Tromso against 1.55 for Fredrikstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Tromso have posted 1.67 PPG from 30 outings (15W 5D 10L).
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tromso are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.28 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Fredrikstad in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Current Season
Fredrikstad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 25W 18D 17L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Fredrikstad away?
Tromso's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.67 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Tromso or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Tromso
2
Draws
0
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Fredrikstad have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Tromso 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Fredrikstad?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 43%, Fredrikstad 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Tromso) and 40% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Tromso keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fredrikstad in 40%; Fredrikstad in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tromso's recent matches and 37% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tromso vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Tromso's recent games and 40% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tromso and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tromso run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Fredrikstad 4-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.66 xG and Fredrikstad 1.12 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Tromso beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fredrikstad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.00 / defence 0.91 against Fredrikstad attack 0.95 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 50% | Draw 24% | Fredrikstad 26%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 53%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tromso 1.50 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.