Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 47%, yet in-form Viking provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ham-Kam vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Viking have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Viking hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Injuries
There are 3 absentees in the Ham-Kam camp: Alexandersson, Amundsen-Day, Rye. Viking arrive with a depleted squad, missing 4 players: Austbo, Berisha, Christiansen, Roseth.
Stats
Across 30 matches this season, Ham-Kam have gone 10W 7D 13L. Attacking returns: 1.4 goals per game; defensive: 1.6 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-0 (H) / 0-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-5 (H) / 4-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 3 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 8 games this season. 6 clean sheets this season (4 at home, 2 away). Scored 2+ goals in 6 of 30 games (20%). Penalties this season: 3 scored / 0 missed from 3 awarded. Most used formation: 5-3-2. Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.
On the season-wide numbers, Viking show 22W 5D 3L from 30 outings in Eliteserien. Attacking returns: 2.6 goals per game; defensive: 1.2 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 5-1 (H) / 2-5 (A). Heaviest defeat: 2-4 (H) / 3-1 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 6 consecutive games. Worst losing run: 2 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 1 game this season. 9 clean sheets this season (6 at home, 3 away). Scored 2+ goals in 16 of 30 games (53%). Penalties this season: 12 scored / 0 missed from 12 awarded. Most used formation: 4-1-4-1. Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards per game.
Viking have been the more prolific side this season at 2.60 goals per game compared to 1.40 for the hosts. Viking have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.20 per game versus 1.60 for the hosts. Viking lead on clean sheets this season (9 vs 6). Viking score 2+ goals far more often (53% vs 20%) — a meaningful difference for goal-line markets. Penalty activity: Ham-Kam 3/3 vs Viking 12/12 this season.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus Viking 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 50% | Viking 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.86 xG and Viking 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.057 / defence 0.960 | Viking attack 1.115 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.945 / away 1.371. Data: 30 Ham-Kam games / 30 Viking games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 22% | Viking 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 3.23. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Viking (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 70% | Viking 80% BTTS from recent games.
Ham-Kam head in with 3 confirmed absences, which could disrupt squad depth. — factor the squad news into your confidence level before committing. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Managers: Ham-Kam (J. Michelsen) | Viking (B. Aarsheim) • Confirmed absences: Ham-Kam 3 | Viking 4 • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (9 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 2 | Viking 6W • Goals trend: 4.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ham-Kam 15 – 27 Viking • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 89% | Win rates: Ham-Kam 11% / Draw 22% / Viking 67% • Historical edge: Viking dominant — 6W from 9 meetings (67% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Viking (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Ham-Kam as more likely (home 47% / draw 22% / away 31%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.67 goals/game (89% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.33 (65% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 65% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L • Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W • Ham-Kam home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 3 • Viking away split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Form edge: Viking lead by 1.00 PPG (2.60 vs 1.60) • xG vs form (Ham-Kam): Poisson xG of 1.86 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Viking): Poisson projects 1.47 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.33 (65% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Ham-Kam 7/10, Viking 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 65% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Viking on PPG but Poisson rates Ham-Kam higher (47% vs 31% for Viking) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 47% | Draw 22% | Viking 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Ham-Kam 1.86 / Viking 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.057 / def 0.960 | Viking attack 1.115 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.945 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Viking xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Viking kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Viking kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Ham-Kam 2 - 1 Viking.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Viking part of?
Ham-Kam vs Viking is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 47% chance of winning, Viking a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ham-Kam and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Viking?
• Record (9 meetings): Ham-Kam 1W | Draws 2 | Viking 6W • Goals trend: 4.67 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Ham-Kam 15 – 27 Viking • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 89% | Win rates: Ham-Kam 11% / Draw 22% / Viking 67% • Historical edge: Viking dominant — 6W from 9 meetings (67% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Viking (historical win rate 67%) but Poisson model rates Ham-Kam as more likely (home 47% / draw 22% / away 31%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.67 goals/game (89% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 3.33 (65% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 65% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are Ham-Kam and Viking in?
• Ham-Kam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L • Viking (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W • Ham-Kam home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 3 • Viking away split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 2 • Form edge: Viking lead by 1.00 PPG (2.60 vs 1.60) • xG vs form (Ham-Kam): Poisson xG of 1.86 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Viking): Poisson projects 1.47 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.90 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Goals margin: form ~2.6 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.33 (65% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Ham-Kam 7/10, Viking 8/10; Poisson BTTS probability 65% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours Viking on PPG but Poisson rates Ham-Kam higher (47% vs 31% for Viking) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about Ham-Kam vs Viking?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture