Kristiansund BK 1-3 Tromso – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Tromso at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kristiansund BK vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Tromso at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Tromso have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Tromso have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Tromso — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kristiansund BK, 1 for Tromso and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 3–2 with Kristiansund BK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Tromso in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 57% versus Tromso 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 53% | Tromso 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.39 xG and Tromso 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.879 / defence 1.089 | Tromso attack 0.964 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.772 / away 1.366. Data: 58 Kristiansund BK games / 59 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 36% | Draw 25% | Tromso 38%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Tromso 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tromso are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tromso offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 70% | Tromso 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 36% | Draw 25% | Tromso 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.39 / Tromso 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.879 / def 1.089 | Tromso attack 0.964 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.772 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Tromso (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Tromso xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Tromso kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Tromso?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 3 Tromso.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Tromso part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 36% chance of winning, Tromso a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Tromso?
Record (7 meetings): Kristiansund BK 2W | Draws 4 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Tromso in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Tromso (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Tromso's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
36%
2.75
25%
3.97
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.82
1.43
Tromso xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.43 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 17W 17D 24L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Tromso's form line: 26W 9D 23L from 58 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.17 PPG, Tromso on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (10W 10D 9L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 11W 4D 14L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Tromso in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Tromso in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Tromso have gone 26W 9D 23L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Tromso away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.38 PPG; Tromso away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Kristiansund BK or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kristiansund BK have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Tromso in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kristiansund BK and Tromso runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tromso go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Tromso?
From 9 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 2, Tromso have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Tromso 2-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 59%, Tromso 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Kristiansund BK) and 45% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 34% of games; Tromso in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Kristiansund BK's recent matches and 41% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 45% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Tromso tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Tromso in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Kristiansund BK 1-3 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.39 xG and Tromso 1.43 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Tromso outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Tromso attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 36% | Draw 25% | Tromso 38%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 53%, Tromso 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.17 PPG, Tromso 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.