Tromso 0-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 43%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Tromso have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.60 PPG clear of Tromso over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Tromso, 2 for Bodo/Glimt and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2024, ended Tromso 0–4 Bodo/Glimt — a Bodo/Glimt win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 50% versus Bodo/Glimt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 57% | Bodo/Glimt 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.58 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.025 / defence 1.004 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.094 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.239. Data: built from Tromso's last 54 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 54.
Result probabilities: Tromso 43% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 33%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.35 | Draw 4.09 | Bodo/Glimt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tromso's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tromso 40% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 25 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 43% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Tromso 1.58 / Bodo/Glimt 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.025 / def 1.004 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.094 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Tromso (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt FAQs
What time does Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Tromso 0 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 25) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 43% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tromso and Bodo/Glimt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.09x) against Tromso's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Tromso's last 54 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.09
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.94
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Tromso and 1.36 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso come into this having played 54 games, going 27W 8D 19L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.28 PPG from 54 outings (38W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tromso's home form reads 13W 4D 10L across their last 27 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.04 points per game from their last 27 away games (17W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.50 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Tromso (Home) vs Bodo/Glimt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tromso
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Form FAQs
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 27W 8D 19L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 38W 9D 7L in their last 54 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.59 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Tromso or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tromso
3
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tromso have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Tromso 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 56%, Bodo/Glimt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Tromso and 63% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tromso's games and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Tromso's matches and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Tromso and Bodo/Glimt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Tromso's recent matches and 78% of Bodo/Glimt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.58 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 43% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 33%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 57%, Bodo/Glimt 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.