Tromso 0-0 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tromso at 43%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Romssa Arena to face Tromso in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tromso have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tromso have posted 4W 2D 4L at Romssa Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.60 PPG clear of Tromso in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tromso lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 0–4 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tromso 50% versus Bodo/Glimt 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tromso 57% | Bodo/Glimt 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tromso 1.58 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tromso attack 1.025 / defence 1.004 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.094 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.239. Data: 54 Tromso games / 54 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tromso 43% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 33%. Fair-value odds: Tromso 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Bodo/Glimt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Tromso 40% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Romssa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tromso 43% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Tromso 1.58 / Bodo/Glimt 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Tromso attack 1.025 / def 1.004 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.094 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Tromso (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Tromso xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Romssa Arena.
What was the final score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Tromso 0 - 0 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Romssa Arena.
What competition is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Tromso a 43% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tromso and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (6 meetings): Tromso 2W | Draws 1 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in?
Tromso (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tromso's attack at 1.02x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.09x) against Tromso's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.09
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Tromso xG
Total xG
2.94
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Tromso and 1.36 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tromso come into this having played 54 games, going 27W 8D 19L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.28 PPG from 54 outings (38W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Tromso's home form reads 13W 4D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.04 points per game from 27 outings (17W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tromso are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.50 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tromso
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tromso and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Tromso have gone 27W 8D 19L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 38W 9D 7L in their last 54 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tromso at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tromso at home: 1.59 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Tromso or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tromso have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 16 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tromso have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tromso
3
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Tromso have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tromso and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Tromso and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tromso 56%, Bodo/Glimt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Tromso and 63% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tromso home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tromso play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Tromso's games and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Tromso's matches and 63% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Tromso and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Tromso have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Tromso's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Romssa Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tromso 1.58 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Tromso fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tromso attack 1.02 / defence 1.00 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tromso 43% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 33%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tromso 57%, Bodo/Glimt 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tromso's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.