KFUM Oslo 0-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KFUM Oslo at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 25 as KFUM Oslo welcome Haugesund to KFUM Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KFUM Oslo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at KFUM Arena, KFUM Oslo have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Haugesund — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
KFUM Oslo are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for KFUM Oslo, 0 for Haugesund and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–0 with KFUM Oslo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
KFUM Oslo in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 58% versus Haugesund 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 42% | Haugesund 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.48 xG and Haugesund 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.745 / defence 1.004 | Haugesund attack 1.005 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.231. KFUM Oslo's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing KFUM Oslo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 KFUM Oslo games / 54 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 43% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 32%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Haugesund 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KFUM Oslo 50% | Haugesund 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 43% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG KFUM Oslo 1.48 / Haugesund 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.745 / def 1.004 | Haugesund attack 1.005 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: KFUM Oslo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Haugesund xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
KFUM Oslo 0 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 43% chance of winning, Haugesund a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KFUM Oslo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Haugesund?
Record (1 meetings): KFUM Oslo 1W | Draws 0 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Haugesund in?
KFUM Oslo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates KFUM Oslo's attack at 0.74x the league average against Haugesund's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus KFUM Oslo's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KFUM Oslo Win
43%
2.34
25%
3.92
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.72
1.24
Haugesund xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
7%
13.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.24 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KFUM Oslo's recent record stands at 8W 9D 7L from 24 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 13L across 24 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours KFUM Oslo by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, KFUM Oslo have managed 2W 6D 4L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
KFUM Oslo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.96 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KFUM Oslo and Haugesund in coming into this match?
KFUM Oslo have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KFUM Oslo at home or Haugesund away?
KFUM Oslo's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KFUM Oslo at home: 1.00 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KFUM Oslo and Haugesund runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Haugesund won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KFUM Oslo's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
1
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Haugesund?
From 4 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 2, Haugesund have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when KFUM Oslo 1-4 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Haugesund?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KFUM Oslo see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KFUM Oslo 58%, Haugesund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (KFUM Oslo) and 67% (Haugesund).
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KFUM Oslo play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of KFUM Oslo's games and 67% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KFUM Oslo vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of KFUM Oslo's recent games and 67% of Haugesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KFUM Oslo and Haugesund tend to score early?
KFUM Oslo have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at KFUM Oslo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo and Haugesund finished level at 0-0 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.48 xG and Haugesund 1.24 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.74 / defence 1.00 against Haugesund attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 43% | Draw 25% | Haugesund 32%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 42%, Haugesund 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haugesund's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KFUM Oslo arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.