Ham-Kam 0-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Ham-Kam (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Ham-Kam's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ham-Kam, 1 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2024, ended 7–1 with Ham-Kam winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 52% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.95 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.023 / defence 0.890 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.125 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.231. Sarpsborg 08 FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Ham-Kam games / 54 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 54% | Draw 22% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 24%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.17. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights