Bodo/Glimt 2-3 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 28 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Aspmyra Stadion this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aspmyra Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at Aspmyra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Bodo/Glimt against 2.20 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Rosenborg and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 56% and Rosenborg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 64% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.76 xG and Rosenborg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.687 / defence 0.759 | Rosenborg attack 1.036 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.206. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.687 — their λ of 2.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Bodo/Glimt games / 55 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 14% | Rosenborg 10%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.33 | Draw 7.14 | Rosenborg 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 75% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 50% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 28 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 14% | Rosenborg 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 57% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.76 / Rosenborg 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.687 / def 0.759 | Rosenborg attack 1.036 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Rosenborg xG
57%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 28 October 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 3 Rosenborg.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 75% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
Record (6 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.69) and Rosenborg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.04x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
75%
1.33
14%
6.90
10%
9.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.71
0.95
Rosenborg xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.90
14%
Draw
9.75
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
6%
15.83
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
1%
154.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.95 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 38W 10D 7L from 55 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 22L across 55 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rosenborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 21W 5D 1L from 27 games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 7W 6D 14L across 27 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.58 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 64%.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 38W 10D 7L in their last 55 games (2.25 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 23W 10D 22L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Rosenborg away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.52 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 4-0 on 24 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
5
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, Rosenborg have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 52%, Rosenborg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Bodo/Glimt and 70% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Rosenborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Bodo/Glimt's games and 67% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 70% of Rosenborg's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat Bodo/Glimt 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Bodo/Glimt 2-3 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.76 xG and Rosenborg 0.95 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.69 / defence 0.76 against Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 75% | Draw 14% | Rosenborg 10%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Rosenborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 64%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Rosenborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Rosenborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.