Valerenga 1-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valerenga at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valerenga vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 28 as Valerenga welcome Rosenborg to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Valerenga have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's home record at Intility Arena: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Valerenga are significantly better at Intility Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valerenga at 1.90 PPG versus Rosenborg's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Valerenga in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 69% and Rosenborg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 54% | Rosenborg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.87 xG and Rosenborg 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.127 / defence 0.939 | Rosenborg attack 0.795 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.340. Rosenborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Valerenga games / 26 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 57% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 19%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Valerenga (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Rosenborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Monday 7 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 57% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Valerenga 1.87 / Rosenborg 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.127 / def 0.939 | Rosenborg attack 0.795 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rosenborg xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Rosenborg kick off?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 7 December 2020 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Valerenga 1 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Valerenga vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Rosenborg part of?
Valerenga vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 57% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Valerenga and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in?
Valerenga (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
57%
1.77
25%
4.07
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Valerenga xG
Total xG
2.87
1.00
Rosenborg xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
3%
34.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.00 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 9D 5L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (13W 6D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valerenga on 1.73 PPG, Rosenborg on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Valerenga's home form reads 8W 5D 0L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.77 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 12W 9D 5L in their last 26 games (1.73 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 13W 6D 7L in their last 26 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Rosenborg away?
Valerenga's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 2.23 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Rosenborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valerenga
2
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 3, Rosenborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valerenga 77%, Rosenborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Valerenga and 62% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg in 31%; Rosenborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Valerenga's games and 46% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Valerenga's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Valerenga and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valerenga edge out Rosenborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Rosenborg 1-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.87 xG and Rosenborg 1.00 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valerenga fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.13 / defence 0.94 against Rosenborg attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 57% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 19%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 54%, Rosenborg 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Rosenborg's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valerenga 1.73 PPG, Rosenborg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.