Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-3 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Ham-Kam's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Ham-Kam and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% and Ham-Kam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 65% | Ham-Kam 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.00 xG and Ham-Kam 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.200 / defence 1.106 | Ham-Kam attack 0.811 / defence 1.502. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.223. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.502 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 43 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 76% | Draw 14% | Ham-Kam 11%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | Ham-Kam 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (76%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (3.00 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Ham-Kam 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 76% | Draw 14% | Ham-Kam 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 63% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.00 / Ham-Kam 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.200 / def 1.106 | Ham-Kam attack 0.811 / def 1.502 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ham-Kam xG
63%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 3 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 76% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
Record (2 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (1.20) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 3.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.81x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 3-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
76%
1.32
14%
7.21
11%
9.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
4.10
1.10
Ham-Kam xG
1.32
76%
Home win
7.21
14%
Draw
9.48
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
5%
20.13
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
1%
190.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 3.00 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.10 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 43 games, going 18W 8D 17L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 0.95 PPG from 43 outings (9W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.62 points per game from 21 outings (2W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.07 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 8D 17L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 9W 14D 20L in their last 43 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Ham-Kam away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.48 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 1-7 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 71% for Ham-Kam — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 71% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 71% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 71% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ham-Kam defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-3 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.00 xG and Ham-Kam 1.10 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Ham-Kam outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Ham-Kam attack 0.81 / defence 1.50, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 76% | Draw 14% | Ham-Kam 11%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a Ham-Kam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 65%, Ham-Kam 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Ham-Kam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.