Bodo/Glimt 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bodo/Glimt face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt host Haugesund at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bodo/Glimt are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for Haugesund and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 63% and Haugesund 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Haugesund 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG and Haugesund 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.404 / defence 0.935 | Haugesund attack 0.626 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.223. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.404 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Bodo/Glimt games / 43 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 69% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Haugesund 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Haugesund 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 69% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 45% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.07 / Haugesund 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.404 / def 0.935 | Haugesund attack 0.626 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Haugesund xG
45%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 69% chance of winning, Haugesund a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Record (4 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 2W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Haugesund (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bodo/Glimt's attack rating (1.40) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
69%
1.46
20%
5.08
12%
8.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.78
0.72
Haugesund xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
8.62
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
13%
7.91
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
1%
68.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.72 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bodo/Glimt's recent record stands at 29W 7D 7L from 43 games, a 2.19 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 18L across 43 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haugesund heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bodo/Glimt have managed 13W 7D 1L from 21 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 5W 5D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.26 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 29W 7D 7L in their last 43 games (2.19 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or Haugesund away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.19 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Haugesund in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, Haugesund have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 67%, Haugesund 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Bodo/Glimt and 48% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Haugesund in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 38% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 48% of Haugesund's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and Haugesund tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 2-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.07 xG and Haugesund 0.72 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.40 / defence 0.94 against Haugesund attack 0.63 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 69% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 72%, Haugesund 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.