Stabaek 5-2 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Ham-Kam encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Stabaek and Ham-Kam meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 4 October 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Stabaek's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Stabaek are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Ham-Kam (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Ham-Kam have posted 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ham-Kam are 1.50 PPG clear of Stabaek over their recent games (1.70 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Ham-Kam edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Stabaek 2–3 Ham-Kam — a Ham-Kam win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 46% versus Ham-Kam 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Ham-Kam 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.11 xG and Ham-Kam 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.525 / defence 0.943 | Ham-Kam attack 1.002 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.271. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.525 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Ham-Kam's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stabaek's projected output up. Data: built from Stabaek's last 22 games and Ham-Kam's last 52.

Result probabilities: Stabaek 33% | Draw 30% | Ham-Kam 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.04 | Draw 3.33 | Ham-Kam 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Stabaek's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stabaek 30% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 60% (last 10 away games).

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