Stabaek 0-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Stabaek face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Molde meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 July 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across their last 8 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 8 home games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Stabaek are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Molde's record over their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Molde are 1.40 PPG clear of Stabaek over their recent games (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Molde, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Stabaek 3–2 Molde — a Stabaek win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Molde have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 53% versus Molde 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Molde 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.05 xG and Molde 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.695 / defence 0.933 | Molde attack 1.332 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.308. Stabaek's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Molde have an above-average attack rating of 1.332, which lifts their away xG to 1.62. Data: built from Stabaek's last 15 games and Molde's last 46.
Result probabilities: Stabaek 24% | Draw 25% | Molde 51%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 4.08 | Draw 4.05 | Molde 1.97. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stabaek's last 8 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stabaek 38% (last 8 home games) | Molde 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 16 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 24% | Draw 25% | Molde 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Stabaek 1.05 / Molde 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.695 / def 0.933 | Molde attack 1.332 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Molde (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Molde xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stabaek vs Molde FAQs
What time does Stabaek vs Molde kick off?
Stabaek vs Molde kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Stabaek 0 - 1 Molde.
Where is Stabaek vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Molde part of?
Stabaek vs Molde is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 16) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 24% chance of winning, Molde a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Stabaek and Molde will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stabaek vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.69) and Molde's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.33x) against Stabaek's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from Stabaek's last 15 games and Molde's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
24%
4.08
25%
4.05
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.67
1.62
Molde xG
4.08
24%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
5%
20.74
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stabaek vs Molde Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.62 for Molde, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 4D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Molde sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across their last 7 home games, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Stabaek are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 7 away games (3W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.53 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Molde in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Molde
Blended
Stabaek (Home) vs Molde (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stabaek
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Stabaek vs Molde Form FAQs
What form are Stabaek and Molde in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Molde have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Molde away?
Stabaek's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.57 PPG; Molde away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Molde in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Stabaek and Molde, the earliest from June 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won Molde 4-1 Stabaek on 28 Jun 2020, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Stabaek vs Molde H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stabaek have won 1, Molde have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Molde last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 July 2023: Stabaek 0-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 43%, Molde 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Stabaek and 86% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stabaek vs Molde Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stabaek and Molde matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stabaek's recent matches and 57% of Molde's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stabaek and Molde matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Stabaek's matches and 86% of Molde's.
Do Stabaek and Molde matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Stabaek's recent matches and 86% of Molde's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Stabaek 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stabaek 0-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.05 xG and Molde 1.62 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stabaek fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.69 / defence 0.93 against Molde attack 1.33 / defence 0.87, drawn from 15/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 24% | Draw 25% | Molde 51%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 60%, Molde 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.