Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Haugesund travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 July 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.50 PPG, Haugesund 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Haugesund 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 69% and Haugesund 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Haugesund 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.68 xG and Haugesund 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.107 / defence 1.188 | Haugesund attack 0.659 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.301. Data: 45 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 45 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 23%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Haugesund 4.35. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Haugesund 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.68 / Haugesund 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.107 / def 1.188 | Haugesund attack 0.659 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Haugesund xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 53% chance of winning, Haugesund a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Record (5 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 2 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (1.11) and Haugesund's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.13
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.70
1.02
Haugesund xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.02 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 18W 8D 19L from 45 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haugesund, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 19L across 45 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.38 PPG, Haugesund on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 9W 4D 9L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Haugesund's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.24 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 8D 19L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Haugesund away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.41 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Haugesund have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%, Haugesund 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 41% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Haugesund tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Haugesund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Haugesund 2-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.68 xG and Haugesund 1.02 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.11 / defence 1.19 against Haugesund attack 0.66 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% | Draw 24% | Haugesund 23%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%, Haugesund 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Haugesund's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.38 PPG, Haugesund 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.