ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ODD Ballklubb (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as ODD Ballklubb face Stabaek.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
ODD Ballklubb welcome Stabaek to Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 6 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Stabaek have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 away fixtures (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, ODD Ballklubb have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of ODD Ballklubb: 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Stabaek, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended ODD Ballklubb 0–0 Stabaek — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives ODD Ballklubb an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stabaek trading profile (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 38% versus Stabaek 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 38% | Stabaek 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.71 xG and Stabaek 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.805 / defence 0.785 | Stabaek attack 0.858 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.331. Stabaek's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing ODD Ballklubb's projected output up. ODD Ballklubb have a tight defence (rating 0.785), which is pulling Stabaek's projected output down. Data: built from ODD Ballklubb's last 47 games and Stabaek's last 16.
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 20%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.77 | Draw 4.20 | Stabaek 5.12. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (ODD Ballklubb's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 7 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: ODD Ballklubb 50% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 71% (last 7 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 17 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.71 / Stabaek 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.805 / def 0.785 | Stabaek attack 0.858 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Stabaek xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
ODD Ballklubb 4 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 17) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 57% chance of winning, Stabaek a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
ODD Ballklubb's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from ODD Ballklubb's last 47 games and Stabaek's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.20
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.61
0.90
Stabaek xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
4%
28.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 0.90 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 3D 7L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Stabaek sit at 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: ODD Ballklubb on 1.31 PPG, Stabaek on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across their last 7 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Stabaek have taken 0.57 points per game from their last 7 away games (1W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stabaek's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.06 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
ODD Ballklubb (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Stabaek away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.57 PPG; Stabaek away: 0.57 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Stabaek in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 6 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2023, when ODD Ballklubb won ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
2
Draws
0
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Stabaek have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 August 2023: ODD Ballklubb 4-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 29%, Stabaek 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (ODD Ballklubb) and 86% (Stabaek).
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb have failed to score in 43% of games; Stabaek in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ODD Ballklubb vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 71% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of ODD Ballklubb's recent games and 86% of Stabaek's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 43% of ODD Ballklubb's recent matches and 86% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Stabaek 4-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.71 xG and Stabaek 0.90 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stabaek landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.81 / defence 0.79 against Stabaek attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 47/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 57% | Draw 24% | Stabaek 20%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 38%, Stabaek 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stabaek's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ODD Ballklubb 1.31 PPG, Stabaek 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ODD Ballklubb win broke the near-deadlock. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.