Aalesund 1-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stromsgodset at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aalesund vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Stromsgodset travel to Color Line Stadion to take on Aalesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 July 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aalesund stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Color Line Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Aalesund are significantly better at Color Line Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stromsgodset — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Aalesund have won 2, Stromsgodset 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Stromsgodset winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Aalesund trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Stromsgodset trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aalesund 51% versus Stromsgodset 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aalesund 64% | Stromsgodset 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.14 xG and Stromsgodset 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.762 / defence 1.200 | Stromsgodset attack 0.860 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.301. Aalesund's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Aalesund games / 45 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 32% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 41%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Stromsgodset 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Aalesund 40% | Stromsgodset 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 32% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Aalesund 1.14 / Stromsgodset 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.762 / def 1.200 | Stromsgodset attack 0.860 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Stromsgodset xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Aalesund vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Aalesund 1 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset part of?
Aalesund vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 32% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Aalesund and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
Record (5 meetings): Aalesund 2W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 2W.
What form are Aalesund and Stromsgodset in?
Aalesund (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Aalesund's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.71
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.48
1.34
Stromsgodset xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.11
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.34 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Stromsgodset?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Aalesund come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 10D 24L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stromsgodset sit at 1.18 PPG from 45 outings (15W 8D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aalesund on 0.96 PPG, Stromsgodset on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Aalesund's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Stromsgodset have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aalesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Aalesund are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.40 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 11W 10D 24L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 15W 8D 22L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Stromsgodset away?
Aalesund's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 1.23 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2020, when Stromsgodset won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aalesund's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Aalesund
1
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
From 6 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Aalesund 1-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Stromsgodset?
Aalesund have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Aalesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aalesund 54%, Stromsgodset 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Aalesund) and 50% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Aalesund have failed to score in 32% of games; Stromsgodset in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Aalesund's recent matches and 46% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aalesund vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Aalesund's recent games and 50% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aalesund and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aalesund defy the odds to beat Stromsgodset 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund beat Stromsgodset 1-0 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.14 xG and Stromsgodset 1.34 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stromsgodset landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Stromsgodset attack 0.86 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 32% | Draw 27% | Stromsgodset 41%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Aalesund win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 64%, Stromsgodset 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aalesund 0.96 PPG, Stromsgodset 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aalesund win broke the near-deadlock. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.