Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%, yet in-form Rosenborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rosenborg have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Rosenborg arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Rosenborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 45% versus Rosenborg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Rosenborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.44 xG and Rosenborg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.935 / defence 0.880 | Rosenborg attack 1.098 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.303. Data: 51 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 51 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Rosenborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Rosenborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.44 / Rosenborg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.935 / def 0.880 | Rosenborg attack 1.098 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Rosenborg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 39% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 0 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.10x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
39%
2.57
31%
3.27
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.70
1.26
Rosenborg xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.26 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 51 games, going 14W 13D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.75 PPG from 51 outings (26W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 10W 7D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.82 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 26W 11D 14L in their last 51 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Rosenborg away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.42 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Rosenborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 38%, Rosenborg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 62% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 31% of games; Rosenborg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 58% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 62% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sarpsborg 08 FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.44 xG and Rosenborg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Rosenborg attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% | Draw 31% | Rosenborg 31%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, Rosenborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.