Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 34%, yet in-form Kristiansund BK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Kristiansund BK to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Thursday 27 May 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sarpsborg Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sarpsborg 08 FF are significantly better at Sarpsborg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kristiansund BK — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 0 for Kristiansund BK and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43% and Kristiansund BK 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47% | Kristiansund BK 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.16 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.815 / defence 0.798 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.996 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.399. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 34 Kristiansund BK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 34% | Draw 34% | Kristiansund BK 32%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Kristiansund BK 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 40% | Kristiansund BK 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 27 May 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 34% | Draw 34% | Kristiansund BK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.16 / Kristiansund BK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.815 / def 0.798 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.996 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Kristiansund BK xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 27 May 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 34% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 0W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.81x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
34%
2.92
34%
2.96
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.27
1.11
Kristiansund BK xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.11 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 8D 14L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 12W 12D 6L from 30 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Kristiansund BK are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 8D 2L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK in 83%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Kristiansund BK's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Kristiansund BK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kristiansund BK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 33%, Kristiansund BK 87% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 67% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 87% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 67% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kristiansund BK defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kristiansund BK beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.16 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.11 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.81 / defence 0.80 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 34% | Draw 34% | Kristiansund BK 32%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Kristiansund BK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 47%, Kristiansund BK 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.