Haugesund 1-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Rosenborg travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's home record at Haugesund Sparebank Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Haugesund) versus 1.60 (Rosenborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Haugesund, 1 for Rosenborg and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (46 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (46 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 59% and Rosenborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 56% | Rosenborg 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.946 / defence 0.892 | Rosenborg attack 0.917 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.331. Data: 46 Haugesund games / 47 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 46% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 28%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Rosenborg 3.57. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 70% | Rosenborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 46% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Haugesund 1.48 / Rosenborg 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.946 / def 0.892 | Rosenborg attack 0.917 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Rosenborg xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Rosenborg kick off?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Haugesund 1 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Haugesund vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Rosenborg part of?
Haugesund vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 46% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haugesund and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Record (5 meetings): Haugesund 1W | Draws 3 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.95x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rosenborg's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.86
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.57
1.09
Rosenborg xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
15.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.09 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Haugesund have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 15W 11D 20L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg's form line: 22W 11D 13L from 46 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Venue Form
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Haugesund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 8D 8L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.91 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 63%.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 22W 11D 13L in their last 46 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Rosenborg away?
Haugesund's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.71 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Rosenborg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Rosenborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Haugesund
3
Draws
6
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 1, Rosenborg have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Haugesund 0-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 71%, Rosenborg at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Haugesund) and 62% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Haugesund's games and 71% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Haugesund's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Haugesund and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat Haugesund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Haugesund 1-2 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.09 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against Rosenborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 46% | Draw 26% | Rosenborg 28%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 56%, Rosenborg 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (46 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (46 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.