Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ham-Kam's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 3 for Ham-Kam and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2024, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–0 Ham-Kam — a Sarpsborg 08 FF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% versus Ham-Kam 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Ham-Kam 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.70 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.989 / defence 1.141 | Ham-Kam attack 0.769 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.322. Ham-Kam's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 35 games and Ham-Kam's last 35.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 24%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.09 | Draw 3.55 | Ham-Kam 4.17. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 6 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.70 / Ham-Kam 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.989 / def 1.141 | Ham-Kam attack 0.769 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ham-Kam xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam FAQs
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 6) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 48% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.99) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.77x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 35 games and Ham-Kam's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.55
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.85
1.16
Ham-Kam xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
4%
22.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.16 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 12D 26L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.12 PPG from 60 outings (18W 13D 29L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.12 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 12W 5D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 6D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.22 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Sarpsborg 08 FF (Home) vs Ham-Kam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Ham-Kam
Current Season
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Form FAQs
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 22W 12D 26L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Ham-Kam away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.37 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-7 Ham-Kam on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Ham-Kam 3-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%, Ham-Kam 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 57% for Ham-Kam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 53% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 57% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 77% of Ham-Kam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Ham-Kam 4-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.70 xG and Ham-Kam 1.16 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ham-Kam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.14 against Ham-Kam attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 48% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 24%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, Ham-Kam 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.30 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.